Fußballdiskussionsthread

This isn’t good.

Imagine Manchester United having more than twice the revenue of their closest competitors. Imagine them winning 22 of the past 44 English league titles. Now imagine them building their success by signing their competitor’s top players. Say, Petr Cech from Chelsea, Luis Suarez from Liverpool, Vincent Kompany from Manchester City, Gareth Bale from Tottenham. (Oh, and Robin van Persie from Arsenal, but I guess that one already happened.)

Mario Götze’s imminent £32 million move from Borussia Dortmund to Bayern Munich isn’t just the second most expensive transfer in the history of the German Bundesliga. The timing of the announcement – and, of course, it’s not Bayern’s fault – is also a slap in the face. Take the rest of the mighty Bundesliga and rub their noses in it. We can do this to you whenever and with whomever we like. Because we’re bigger, better and stronger. And there’s nothing you can do about it.

There is so much to admire about the German model. Low ticket prices, nice stadiums, local, diffuse ownership, clubs who actually listen to fans, etc. Less inspiring though is one club’s hegemonic control of the game.

Take the ten biggest transfers in Bundesliga history. The top four – Javi Martinez, Götze, Mario Gomez and Franck Ribery – were all Bayern signings. So were Nos 6 (Arjen Robben), 7 (Manuel Neuer), 8 (Roy Makaay) and 10 (Luiz Gustavo). The two non-Bayern signings who made the top ten? No 9 was the move of Marco Reus (pictured below) to Borussia Dortmund, which was mostly funded by the sale of Shinji Kagawa to Manchester United. And No 5 was also a Dortmund signing: Marcio Amoroso from Parma, back in 2001-02. That expenditure – £22 million – nearly bankrupted the club, incidentally, which is partly why they’ve had to operate on a shoestring for much of the past decade.

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What sets Bayern’s dominance apart from that of big clubs in other countries is that when they spend big they often do so by raiding their direct competitors (hence the analogy above). It’s not just Götze. There’s an obvious pattern.

Stuttgart finished third in the Bundesliga in 2008-09. So Bayern took their star centre forward, Gomez. In 2009-10, Schalke finished second. The following year, they reached the Champions League semi-final. A few months later, they lost Neuer, their star goalkeeper, to Bayern. Last year, Borussia Moenchengladbach’s young team climbed all the way to fourth. What happens? Dante, their defensive stalwart, moves to Bayern.

Bundesliga cheerleaders will point out that, in the last decade, the league has had five different champions. That shows it’s not a one-horse race and that things are exciting right? After all, in the same time frame, the Premier League has had four different winners, Italy and Spain three each.

But the problem is what happens to those non-Bayern sides after they win the title and whether they can establish any kind of sustained success. The jury is out, obviously, on Borussia Dortmund, winners in 2010-11 and 2011-12, though with Götze going and, supposedly, Robert Lewandowski also close to a move, you have to wonder. Yet consider the others.

Werder Bremen won it 2003-04. Right now, they’re fourteenth and they’ve finished outside the top eight in three of the past four seasons. Stuttgart, winners in 2006-07, are tenth and, since conquering the Bundesliga, have finished in the top five just once. The 2008-09 champions, Wolfsburg, are in thirteenth place. Since their title win, they’ve finished eighth, fifteenth and eighth.

What all this means is that nobody, except Bayern, can get any kind of long-term traction. They’re at a financial disadvantage to begin with, they fail to consistently reach the Champions League (which negatively impacts their revenue) and they slide back into mediocrity.

And, guess what? With the advent of Financial Fair Play, Bayern’s stranglehold will only get stronger. They have made a profit for the past 20 years, while also boasting the league’s highest turnover: indeed, it’s higher than the next two – Borussia Dortmund and Schalke – combined.

Plenty of folk mock La Liga for being a two-horse race. At least Barcelona and Real Madrid are two thoroughbreds duking it out. In Germany it’s one genetically modified uber-steed and a bunch of Shetland ponies. Who, as soon as they show some promise, are beaten back into submission by the redmen from Bavaria.

It’s not Bayern’s fault, of course. They’re good at what they do. But in the long-term, it could be a serious problem.